{
  "schema": 1,
  "slug": "outdoor-events-iran",
  "dataset": {
    "title": "Iranian outdoor events, 15 months",
    "snapshot": "27a22e8c8adefe65",
    "events": 1115,
    "published_from": "2025-05-27",
    "published_to": "2026-10-04",
    "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
    "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "license_exceptions": [
      {
        "path": "places.destinations",
        "license": "ODbL 1.0",
        "why": "a table of OpenStreetMap-derived coordinates is a derivative database rather than a work produced from one",
        "url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"
      }
    ],
    "attribution": [
      {
        "source": "OpenStreetMap",
        "via": "Nominatim and Photon",
        "used_for": "destination coordinates and provinces",
        "license": "ODbL 1.0",
        "url": "https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright"
      },
      {
        "source": "Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) — ERA5",
        "via": "Open-Meteo",
        "used_for": "elevation and weather at the meetup point",
        "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
        "url": "https://open-meteo.com/en/license"
      },
      {
        "source": "Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)",
        "via": "Open-Meteo",
        "used_for": "air quality at the meetup point and in Tehran",
        "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
        "url": "https://open-meteo.com/en/license"
      },
      {
        "source": "TGJU",
        "via": "direct",
        "used_for": "free-market USD/toman rate, used as a deflator",
        "license": "cited, not redistributed",
        "url": "https://www.tgju.org/"
      },
      {
        "source": "World Bank — FP.CPI.TOTL",
        "via": "direct",
        "used_for": "official annual CPI, used as the second deflator",
        "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
        "url": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL"
      }
    ]
  },
  "supply": {
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        "publish_month": "2025-05",
        "published": 79,
        "priced": 49,
        "median_price": 330000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2025-06",
        "published": 150,
        "priced": 108,
        "median_price": 350000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2025-09",
        "published": 153,
        "priced": 136,
        "median_price": 350000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2025-10",
        "published": 160,
        "priced": 139,
        "median_price": 350000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2025-11",
        "published": 164,
        "priced": 114,
        "median_price": 484500
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2025-12",
        "published": 132,
        "priced": 84,
        "median_price": 350000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2026-01",
        "published": 34,
        "priced": 21,
        "median_price": 350000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2026-02",
        "published": 93,
        "priced": 64,
        "median_price": 350000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2026-03",
        "published": 1,
        "priced": 1,
        "median_price": 6500000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2026-04",
        "published": 20,
        "priced": 11,
        "median_price": 800000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2026-05",
        "published": 65,
        "priced": 61,
        "median_price": 450000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2026-06",
        "published": 15,
        "priced": 15,
        "median_price": 800000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2026-07",
        "published": 12,
        "priced": 11,
        "median_price": 500000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2026-08",
        "published": 9,
        "priced": 7,
        "median_price": 2950000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2026-09",
        "published": 22,
        "priced": 15,
        "median_price": 1800000
      },
      {
        "publish_month": "2026-10",
        "published": 6,
        "priced": 4,
        "median_price": 4882500
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    ],
    "peak": {
      "month": "2025-11",
      "published": 164
    },
    "recent_median": 14,
    "thin_months": 5
  },
  "gaps": [
    {
      "period": "2025-07 → 2025-08",
      "what": "No events at all for two consecutive months",
      "impact": "Breaks the first summer season; seasonality cannot be read across it",
      "fa": {
        "what": "در دو ماه پیاپی هیچ رویدادی ثبت نشده است",
        "impact": "نخستین فصل تابستان قطع شده و روند فصلی از روی آن خوانده نمی‌شود"
      }
    },
    {
      "period": "2026-03",
      "what": "One event published all month (Iran internet blackout)",
      "impact": "Any monthly statistic for March is a single data point",
      "fa": {
        "what": "در کل ماه تنها یک رویداد منتشر شده (قطعی اینترنت ایران)",
        "impact": "هر آمار ماهانه‌ای برای اسفند، یک نقطه‌ی داده است و نه یک میانگین"
      }
    },
    {
      "period": "2026-04-12 → present",
      "what": "Automated ingestion stopped; supply fell from ~150/mo to ~10/mo",
      "impact": "Post-April months have too few events for stable monthly medians",
      "fa": {
        "what": "ثبت خودکار رویدادها متوقف شد؛ عرضه از حدود ۱۵۰ به حدود ۱۰ رویداد در ماه رسید",
        "impact": "ماه‌های پس از فروردین برای میانه‌ی ماهانه‌ی پایدار داده‌ی کافی ندارند"
      }
    }
  ],
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          "reliable": true
        },
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      "unfiltered_mean_ratio": 4.84
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    "order": [
      "Mountain",
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      "Urban",
      "Water",
      "Desert",
      "Plain",
      "Mixed"
    ],
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      {
        "terrain": "Mountain",
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        "share": 0.6691
      },
      {
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        "terrain": "Plain",
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      {
        "terrain": "Mixed",
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    "canonical_values": 7,
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        "single": 65
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        "publish_month": "2026-06",
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        "single": 15
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        "publish_month": "2026-07",
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        "single": 12
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        "publish_month": "2026-10",
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  },
  "market": {
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    "organizer_coverage": 0.9229,
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    "top10_share": 0.7094,
    "median_events_per_organizer": 4.0,
    "single_event_organizers": 16
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        "starts": 35,
        "publications": 255,
        "start_share": 0.0319,
        "publish_share": 0.2287,
        "iran_weekend": false,
        "western_weekend": true
      },
      {
        "weekday": "Sunday",
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        "start_share": 0.0474,
        "publish_share": 0.2072,
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        "western_weekend": true
      },
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        "publications": 129,
        "start_share": 0.093,
        "publish_share": 0.1157,
        "iran_weekend": false,
        "western_weekend": false
      },
      {
        "weekday": "Tuesday",
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        "start_share": 0.1067,
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        "start_share": 0.0893,
        "publish_share": 0.1058,
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        "start_share": 0.2352,
        "publish_share": 0.0969,
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        "western_weekend": false
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    "western_weekend_share": 0.0793,
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      {
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      {
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      {
        "month": 6,
        "name": "شهریور",
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      },
      {
        "month": 7,
        "name": "مهر",
        "starts": 181
      },
      {
        "month": 8,
        "name": "آبان",
        "starts": 149
      },
      {
        "month": 9,
        "name": "آذر",
        "starts": 119
      },
      {
        "month": 10,
        "name": "دی",
        "starts": 83
      },
      {
        "month": 11,
        "name": "بهمن",
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      },
      {
        "month": 12,
        "name": "اسفند",
        "starts": 35
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    ],
    "seasons": [
      {
        "season": "Autumn",
        "starts": 449
      },
      {
        "season": "Spring",
        "starts": 268
      },
      {
        "season": "Winter",
        "starts": 192
      },
      {
        "season": "Summer",
        "starts": 188
      }
    ],
    "nowruz_break_starts": 5,
    "holiday_starts": 84,
    "holiday_certainty": [
      {
        "certainty": "approx",
        "events": 53
      },
      {
        "certainty": "exact",
        "events": 31
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    ],
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      {
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        "median_lead": 5.0,
        "pct_starting_on_weekend": 0.5685
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      {
        "weekday": "Sunday",
        "median_lead": 5.0,
        "pct_starting_on_weekend": 0.6171
      },
      {
        "weekday": "Monday",
        "median_lead": 3.0,
        "pct_starting_on_weekend": 0.6909
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      {
        "weekday": "Tuesday",
        "median_lead": 3.0,
        "pct_starting_on_weekend": 0.7758
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      {
        "weekday": "Wednesday",
        "median_lead": 2.0,
        "pct_starting_on_weekend": 0.7642
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      {
        "weekday": "Thursday",
        "median_lead": 2.5,
        "pct_starting_on_weekend": 0.6809
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      {
        "weekday": "Friday",
        "median_lead": 5.0,
        "pct_starting_on_weekend": 0.5254
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      "median": 4.0,
      "p25": 2.0,
      "p75": 6.0
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        "lon": 51.465,
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        "kind": "valley",
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        "lon": 46.758,
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        "kind": "grassland",
        "contested": true
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        "lon": 46.1771,
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        "contested": true
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        "name": "قله دختر قلعه طالقان",
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        "lon": 57.0939,
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        "province": "کرمان",
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        "contested": false
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        "name": "قله دلستان",
        "lat": 35.9459,
        "lon": 51.348,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "البرز",
        "kind": "peak",
        "contested": false
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        "name": "قله دماوند، جبهه شمال شرقی",
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        "lon": 52.1108,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "مازندران",
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        "name": "قله ریزان از روستای افجه، لواسان",
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        "lon": 51.6321,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "تهران",
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        "contested": false
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        "name": "قله زینگالو",
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        "lon": 52.9518,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "مازندران",
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        "contested": false
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        "name": "قله ساکا، لواسان",
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        "lon": 51.6632,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "تهران",
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        "contested": false
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        "name": "قله ساکا، منطقه لواسان",
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        "lon": 51.6794,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "تهران",
        "kind": "peak",
        "contested": false
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        "name": "قله هزار کرمان",
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        "lon": 57.2911,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "کرمان",
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        "name": "قله کلخانی",
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        "lon": 51.5589,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "تهران",
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        "contested": false
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        "name": "قله گل اندام",
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        "lon": 52.1816,
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        "province": "مازندران",
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        "lon": 48.9303,
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        "province": "لرستان",
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        "province": "تهران",
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        "province": "مازندران",
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        "province": "مازندران",
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        "lon": 46.2974,
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        "province": "آذربایجان شرقی",
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        "contested": false
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        "name": "پارک جمشیدیه تا ایستگاه 2 کلکچال",
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        "lon": 51.465,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "تهران",
        "kind": "park",
        "contested": false
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      {
        "name": "پارک طالقانی",
        "lat": 38.252,
        "lon": 48.2713,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "اردبیل",
        "kind": "park",
        "contested": true
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      {
        "name": "پارک ملت، تقاطع معلم و امامت",
        "lat": 35.7781,
        "lon": 51.41,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "تهران",
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        "contested": true
      },
      {
        "name": "پارک نیلوفر",
        "lat": 35.7882,
        "lon": 51.4999,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "تهران",
        "kind": "park",
        "contested": true
      },
      {
        "name": "پارکینگ دارآباد",
        "lat": 35.8153,
        "lon": 51.4879,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "تهران",
        "kind": "parking",
        "contested": false
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        "name": "پرسون",
        "lat": 35.8876,
        "lon": 51.7287,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "تهران",
        "kind": "peak",
        "contested": false
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      {
        "name": "پناهگاه کلکچال",
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        "lon": 51.452,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "تهران",
        "kind": "camp_site",
        "contested": false
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        "name": "چابهار",
        "lat": 25.2935,
        "lon": 60.6469,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "سیستان و بلوچستان",
        "kind": "city",
        "contested": false
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        "name": "کویر ابوزیدآباد",
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        "lon": 51.8012,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "اصفهان",
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        "name": "گلابدره",
        "lat": 35.8107,
        "lon": 51.4313,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "تهران",
        "kind": "river",
        "contested": false
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        "name": "گلابدره، بالاتر از میدان تجریش، پارکینگ سورتمه تهران",
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        "lon": 51.4313,
        "events": 2,
        "province": "تهران",
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        "contested": false
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        "name": "Alberta، Canada",
        "lat": 55.0013,
        "lon": -115.0021,
        "events": 1,
        "province": null,
        "kind": "state",
        "contested": true
      },
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        "name": "James Gardens، 99 Edenbridge Dr، Etobicoke، ON M9A 3G4، Toronto، ON، Canada",
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        "lon": -79.5145,
        "events": 1,
        "province": null,
        "kind": "park",
        "contested": false
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        "name": "James Garden، Humber River Recreational Trail، Toronto، Canada",
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        "lon": -79.5135,
        "events": 1,
        "province": null,
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        "contested": false
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        "name": "Toronto، Canada",
        "lat": 43.6535,
        "lon": -79.3839,
        "events": 1,
        "province": null,
        "kind": "city",
        "contested": false
      },
      {
        "name": "Toronto، ON، Humber Valley Recreational Trail",
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        "lon": -79.3839,
        "events": 1,
        "province": null,
        "kind": "city",
        "contested": false
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      {
        "name": "«استان البرز » آزادبر",
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        "lon": 50.7884,
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      {
        "name": "آب بر به قلعه رودخان",
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        "lon": 48.9533,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "زنجان",
        "kind": "town",
        "contested": false
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      {
        "name": "آبشار آهکی اسکلیم",
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        "lon": 52.7642,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "مازندران",
        "kind": "waterfall",
        "contested": false
      },
      {
        "name": "آبشار آهکی اسکلیم، جنگلهای لفور، سوادکوه",
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        "lon": 52.7642,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "مازندران",
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      },
      {
        "name": "آبشار ایگل، آهار، تهران",
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        "lon": 51.4688,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "تهران",
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      {
        "name": "آبشار تالون",
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        "lon": 51.2722,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "تهران",
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      {
        "name": "آبشار تهران، صعود به قله لتمال و آسیاب باد",
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        "lon": 51.2186,
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        "province": "تهران",
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      {
        "name": "آبشار جنگلی آراج، جاده فیروزکوه",
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        "lon": 48.8171,
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        "province": "خوزستان",
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        "contested": true
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      {
        "name": "آبشار دریابن، اسالم، خلخال",
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        "lon": 48.9584,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "گیلان",
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        "contested": false
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      {
        "name": "آبشار سنگان",
        "lat": 35.8959,
        "lon": 51.2056,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "تهران",
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      {
        "name": "آبشار سنگان، جاده امامزاده داود، میدان کوهسار",
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        "lon": 51.2056,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "تهران",
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      {
        "name": "آبشار سپهسالار، کرج، آسارا",
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        "lon": 50.9905,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "البرز",
        "kind": "county",
        "contested": false
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        "name": "آبشار سیاه چشمان",
        "lat": 35.8575,
        "lon": 51.3471,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "تهران",
        "kind": "waterfall",
        "contested": true
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      {
        "name": "آبشار شاهاندشت و قلعه ملک بهمن، آمل",
        "lat": 35.9084,
        "lon": 52.2565,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "مازندران",
        "kind": "castle",
        "contested": false
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      {
        "name": "آبشار شاهاندشت، لاریجان، آمل",
        "lat": 35.9084,
        "lon": 52.2573,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "مازندران",
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        "contested": false
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      {
        "name": "آبشار شکرآب و آهار",
        "lat": 35.9361,
        "lon": 51.4422,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "تهران",
        "kind": "waterfall",
        "contested": false
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      {
        "name": "آبشار شی الیم، منطقه جنگلی بندپی بابل، مازندران",
        "lat": 36.3263,
        "lon": 52.5103,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "مازندران",
        "kind": "park",
        "contested": false
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      {
        "name": "آبشار ورسک، پل ورسک، دریاچه سد برنجستانک، جنگل اندارگلی، سوادکوه، شرق تهران",
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        "lon": 52.9973,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "مازندران",
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        "name": "آبشار چال مگس",
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        "lon": 51.4867,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "تهران",
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      {
        "name": "آبشار چهل چشمه",
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        "lon": 52.0218,
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        "province": "فارس",
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        "name": "آبشار کلوگان، فشم، شمیرانات",
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        "lon": 51.5677,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "تهران",
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        "name": "آبنیک، شرق تهران",
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        "lon": 51.6182,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "تهران",
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        "name": "آذربایجان غربی",
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        "lon": 45.0208,
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        "province": null,
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        "lon": 59.5445,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "خراسان رضوی",
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        "name": "آستارا تا ترکمن",
        "lat": 38.4193,
        "lon": 48.8715,
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        "province": "گیلان",
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        "name": "آمل",
        "lat": 36.4709,
        "lon": 52.3571,
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        "province": null,
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        "name": "آمل، شاه زید",
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        "province": "مازندران",
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        "lon": 51.4688,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "تهران",
        "kind": "waterfall",
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        "name": "ابهر، قله ملا داغی",
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        "events": 1,
        "province": "زنجان",
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        "name": "اردبیل به حیران",
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        "province": "اردبیل",
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        "province": "مازندران",
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        "name": "ارفع ده تا طالع رودبار",
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        "province": "مازندران",
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        "province": "مازندران",
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        "name": "ارفه کوه",
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        "lon": 52.9912,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "مازندران",
        "kind": "peak",
        "contested": false
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        "name": "از سوها به آبشار لاتون، با ترانسفر و کمپ",
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        "lon": 46.9786,
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        "province": "آذربایجان شرقی",
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        "lon": 51.1588,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "مازندران",
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        "name": "اساس به پاشاکلا",
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        "events": 1,
        "province": "مازندران",
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        "lon": 48.9584,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "گیلان",
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        "lon": 51.665,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "اصفهان",
        "kind": "city",
        "contested": true
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        "name": "اصفهان، نطنز",
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        "lon": 51.9136,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "اصفهان",
        "kind": "town",
        "contested": false
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      {
        "name": "اصفهان، نطنز، قله کرکس",
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        "lon": 51.7909,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "اصفهان",
        "kind": "alpine_hut",
        "contested": false
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        "name": "افجه",
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        "lon": 51.6779,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "تهران",
        "kind": "river",
        "contested": false
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        "name": "البرز، جاده چالوس",
        "lat": 34.0044,
        "lon": 49.3901,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "مرکزی",
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        "contested": true
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        "name": "البرز، جاده چالوس، تهران و کرج",
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        "name": "البرز، طالقان",
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        "lon": 50.7655,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "البرز",
        "kind": "town",
        "contested": false
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        "name": "البرز، همه جا",
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        "lon": 51.2716,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "البرز",
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        "contested": false
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        "name": "البرز، وارنگهرود",
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        "province": "البرز",
        "kind": "river",
        "contested": true
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        "name": "البرز، کرج، آسارا، سیجان",
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        "lon": 51.1481,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "البرز",
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        "contested": false
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        "lon": 50.9905,
        "events": 1,
        "province": "البرز",
        "kind": "county",
        "contested": false
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        "events": 1,
        "province": "تهران",
        "kind": "village",
        "contested": false
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        "province": "گیلان",
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        "lever": "is_holiday",
        "owner": "organizer",
        "found": 0.7,
        "found_lo": -10.8,
        "found_hi": 12.2,
        "found_p": 0.901,
        "impressions": 5.1,
        "impressions_lo": -24.8,
        "impressions_hi": 46.9,
        "impressions_p": 0.776,
        "stable_across_eras": false,
        "per": null
      },
      {
        "lever": "log_price",
        "owner": "organizer",
        "found": 0.0,
        "found_lo": -2.9,
        "found_hi": 3.0,
        "found_p": 0.972,
        "impressions": 2.9,
        "impressions_lo": -8.0,
        "impressions_hi": 15.0,
        "impressions_p": 0.631,
        "stable_across_eras": false,
        "per": 0.86
      }
    ],
    "late": {
      "events": 94,
      "of": 1029,
      "share": 0.0914,
      "found_when_late": 0.3511,
      "found_otherwise": 0.6749
    },
    "shape": [
      {
        "bucket": "<=0",
        "events": 83,
        "found_share": 0.386,
        "median_impressions": 0.0
      },
      {
        "bucket": "1",
        "events": 86,
        "found_share": 0.628,
        "median_impressions": 1.5
      },
      {
        "bucket": "2",
        "events": 154,
        "found_share": 0.649,
        "median_impressions": 2.0
      },
      {
        "bucket": "3",
        "events": 131,
        "found_share": 0.679,
        "median_impressions": 2.0
      },
      {
        "bucket": "4-5",
        "events": 229,
        "found_share": 0.668,
        "median_impressions": 2.0
      },
      {
        "bucket": "6-7",
        "events": 121,
        "found_share": 0.727,
        "median_impressions": 2.0
      },
      {
        "bucket": "8-14",
        "events": 64,
        "found_share": 0.688,
        "median_impressions": 2.0
      },
      {
        "bucket": "15-30",
        "events": 19,
        "found_share": 0.474,
        "median_impressions": 0.0
      },
      {
        "bucket": "30+",
        "events": 31,
        "found_share": 0.677,
        "median_impressions": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "corroboration": {
      "available": false,
      "source": "first-party page views",
      "n": 202,
      "organizers": 14,
      "reason": "page_views begins 2026-04-28, so the count is a lifetime total over a window that differs per event rather than a matched one"
    }
  },
  "refusals": [
    {
      "claim": "breakdown by category",
      "why": "one value covers 94% of events — the column cannot distinguish them"
    },
    {
      "claim": "events by province, as stored",
      "why": "89% missing in the database; the published province comes from geocoding the meetup text instead"
    },
    {
      "claim": "prices rose 3.5x",
      "why": "an artefact of unfiltered means over a right-skewed distribution with 7-event months; the median held and the real price fell"
    },
    {
      "claim": "participation, attendance or popularity",
      "why": "not measured — this dataset records what was offered, never who went"
    },
    {
      "claim": "a ranked list of what makes an event succeed",
      "why": "nine of the ten levers tested are indistinguishable from noise, and the outcome measured is search visibility, not attendance — the levers section publishes the discards for exactly this reason"
    }
  ]
}